For nearly a decade, Democrats have maintained a majority in the Nevada legislature, currently holding 28 of 42 seats in the Assembly and only one seat shy of a supermajority in the Senate.
With all 42 Assembly seats and half of the Senate up for re-election this year, Republicans are eyeing a chance to narrow this lead. Should Democrats gain a supermajority, they’d have the power to pass tax increases and override gubernatorial vetoes without Republican input.
Governor Joe Lombardo vetoed 75 bills in his first term, arguing they posed a “harmful and dangerous” impact. Several of these bills echoed California policies, from rent control and transparency on rental fees to legislation expanding Medicaid access to all Nevada residents regardless of immigration status and allocating $43 million for free school meals.
Lombardo fears these proposals could re-emerge and pass if Democrats win a supermajority. Meanwhile, Lombardo’s legislative priorities, like voter ID laws and school choice expansion, would face insurmountable obstacles if Democrats gain more control.
His initiatives were often stalled in the committee stages by the Democratic majority, which was criticized for alleged gerrymandering that favored their dominance. However, Republican voter turnout during early voting has been strong and seen as a challenge to Democrats’ supermajority.
As the race heats up, independent voters will play a decisive role.
GOP consultant Jeremy Hughes estimates a final Republican lead of 10,000-20,000 voters based on current trends and recent increases in GOP registrations. With nonpartisan voters representing a substantial share, their decisions could shape both legislative outcomes and the top of the ballot.
The Harris-Walz campaign, in particular, needs a three percent edge among these voters to secure a win, matching the margin by which Lombardo and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won independents in 2022.
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