A new report shows Vice President Kamala Harris faces increased challenges from former President Donald Trump in Nevada.
Polling data and economic concerns have created an unfavorable environment for Harris in Nevada, which political strategists say is critical to victory.
“There are very few paths to victory that do not involve Nevada,” said Dheeraj Chand, a Democratic strategist, in the DCNF report.
Republican strategists echoed the concerns, with GOP strategist Jeremy Hughes noting: “It’s the only state that President Trump lost twice. Now, he has a chance to flip it this cycle.”
Trump’s economic platform, including policies like “No Tax on Tips,” resonates strongly with voters in Nevada, a state heavily dependent on the hospitality industry.
Nevada Republican Party Chairman Michael McDonald emphasized this, telling the DCNF, “As Nevadans look to the future, they are increasingly turning to President Trump’s economic policies as the solution to getting ahead, not just getting by.”
Economic issues will be front and center in the 2024 race.
Nevada’s economy was hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with former Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak implementing extensive shutdowns that are still reverberating through the state. Compounding these challenges is the impact of “Bidenflation,” with Nevadans paying an estimated $1,175 more on household goods and services.
The state’s cumulative inflation rate of 21.8 percent is higher than the national average, making economic recovery a critical issue for voters.
Harris faces added pressure from shifting demographics, particularly among Latino voters, and nearly 20 percent of the electorate. A poll by Nobel Predictive Insights shows Harris leading Trump among Latino voters by just three percent, signaling a tightening race. Trump campaign pollster John McLaughlin sees this as a significant problem for Harris, stating, “Harris is in trouble in Nevada.”
Voter registration trends also pose a challenge for Harris. Data from the Nevada Secretary of State shows a sharp increase in independent voters, now the largest bloc with 820,386 registered, compared to 713,789 Democrats and 667,542 Republicans.
Trump’s proposed “No Tax on Tips” policy, first announced in Las Vegas in 2023, and his broader economic message are gaining traction in Nevada. With the Trump tax cuts from 2017 set to expire in 2025, recent data from the Tax Foundation indicates that Nevada would be one of the most negatively affected states if the cuts are allowed to lapse.
Further, counties like Douglas, Washoe, and Clark are all expected to see significant tax increases, underscoring the economic stakes of the election.
The Old Blog in the Desert 
Leave a comment